In the race to digital modernization, many emerging markets find themselves in need of immediate solutions to challenging capacity gaps — and they’re increasingly turning to China to get them.
At face value, these moves look like simple transactions. However, our analysis shows that these deployments are part of a coordinated strategy that results in enduring dependence on PRC systems.
This paper sequences this dependency in four stages: PRC vendors gain entry by meeting hardware needs, then shift control upward to software and AI platforms that host nations rely on daily. They continue to benefit as host governments adapt regulations to favor the incumbent Chinese systems and aim to scale these successful projects into a template for future markets.
How does the PRC convert routine infrastructure sales into durable strategic leverage? At what point does reliance on Chinese hardware become dependence on platforms a host nation can't easily replace? And what tools do the U.S. and allies have to intervene before that hardens into default governance norms? NSDPI researchers examine these questions and more in this latest white paper on China's growing AI influence.
Key Takeaways:
- Chinese intent: China’s objectives in this realm are largely framed as an offensive projection of power. Their overt goals are aimed at reducing PRC vulnerability to Western coercion and sanctions — embedding technology in emerging markets suggests further desire to create a systemized roadmap for strategic entanglement in these host nations.
- Changing digital landscapes: Host nations playing a game of rapid catch-up see increasing capacity for high-power computing and AI development. Technology is embedded at the highest levels of governance, smart-city operating platforms being a key example.
- Strategic implications: As Chinese vendors embed themselves further in host nation infrastructure, host governments become dependent on PRC technology for essential day-to-day operations and costs of switching providers become prohibitive. Host nation sovereignty is undermined by PRC ownership of software and cloud systems. The United States and its allies must better track China’s strategic spread and offer competitive options.