Insights from Industry Leaders
As AI technology continues to have major impacts on organizations' efficiency and the global economy writ large, its reliance on complex trade networks riddled with bottlenecks and dependencies has become a key concern. NSDPI Senior Researcher Margaret Foster has been conducting in-depth research in this field, and moderated a panel discussion during the NSDPI 2026 Annual Conference last month on resilient supply chains and the defense industrial base that included major industry leaders. “We must think in a cooperative way,” said Nat Puffer, a partner at IQT, a not-for-profit global investment platform that accelerates the introduction of groundbreaking technologies for national security. He pointed to lithium as a key example of how China manipulates prices to suggest dependence. “Our system is a closed spaceship rather than a free range... we have limited air, and what one astronaut breaths another cannot.” Citing new advancements in the last decade that have allowed companies to have more visibility into trade flows, Puffer emphasized the importance of using these tools to better manage risk.
However, while awareness of supply chain risks is important, panelists agreed that clear action toward alternatives is another matter entirely. In some cases, the costs of investing to maintain access in some relatively small mineral industries can outweigh their value, despite their criticality in the supply chain. David Thompson, Altana’s vice president of public sector customer success, agreed with fellow panelists that industry optimization and regulatory environments will be key for businesses to overcome these hurdles, and emphasized that the focus should be the total value of the derivative goods downstream in the supply chain. He cited the recent example of a medical gel refinery, where a shock to a polymer input valued at thousands of dollars impacted billions of dollars' worth of medical products months after the fact. “What are we trying to accomplish?” asked Lieutenant General (Ret.) Brian Cavanaugh, CEO of VigilanteX, a firm that relies on autonomous surveillance technology to ensure the security of job sites. “The size is irrelevant; if we need it, we need it.”
Monitoring Value Flows and Export Trends
Over the past decade, China has taken significant action to assert, and in some cases achieve, dominance in the global trade of minerals essential for microelectronics and batteries. The NSDPI's interactive data visualization, "Building a Glass Fortress: China’s Delicate Trade Dominance in Critical Materials," allows users to explore value flows, export trends, and historical flashpoints for some of these critical minerals.